AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Dispute: Iran’s IRGC navy said it has closed the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice” after ships tried to pass, escalating a standoff that has already disrupted global oil shipping; Iran and Oman’s foreign ministers met in Muscat to discuss safe passage mechanisms under the Islamabad MoU as the U.S. presses for a public pledge that the strait is open and ships won’t be attacked. US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. launched new airstrikes on Iran and Iran retaliated with missile/drone attacks on U.S.-linked bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while Trump and Iran’s leadership traded threats and mediators tried to keep an interim deal alive. Oman’s Shipping Plan: Oman proposed managing traffic via two corridors—southern free navigation under Omani waters and a northern route requiring Tehran approval—aimed at keeping commerce moving without tolls. Regional Logistics Watch: Russia is pushing a mid-July start for a commercial logistics hub at Syria’s Tartous port, targeting initial volumes around 250,000 tons/month, as influence battles continue. Trade Disruption Costs: Transport fares rose after fuel price hikes, with knock-on pressure on freight and public transport operators. Aviation & Passenger Growth: Egypt’s Al Alamein International Airport reported a 57% jump in passenger traffic year-on-year as preparations ramp up for EIAS 2026.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Standoff: The US is pressing Iran to issue a public pledge that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and that commercial ships will not be attacked, as Washington links this demand to continued talks and warns of consequences if Tehran won’t comply. Escalation & Retaliation: After renewed US strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, the fragile ceasefire framework is again under strain, with mediators scrambling as Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi heads to Oman for talks. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Reports say Iran privately told Trump advisers it “made a mistake” over the ship attacks and wants negotiations to continue, but the White House still wants a public acknowledgment. Regional Logistics Impact: Oil and LNG flows face fresh uncertainty as tanker traffic slows and shippers reroute; the IEA warns the July escalation could disrupt expectations for a 2027 oil surplus. Port & Trade Moves: Saudi Ports Authority Mawani added a Maersk service to Jeddah Islamic Port, boosting Red Sea connectivity; separately, Kirkuk’s Daquq Bridge is nearing opening to ease northern Iraq traffic. Humanitarian Transport Strain: Gaza’s health ministry says 70% of transport and ambulance vehicles are out of service, worsening access for patients and staff. Aviation Disruption: Turkish Airlines reported an emergency return after a bird strike.

Hormuz Shipping Standoff: The US struck about 80 targets in Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and now demands Tehran issue a public statement that the strait is open, all lanes are accessible, and ships won’t be attacked—while Iran says the US is violating the June MoU and blames “errant” hardliners. Regional Escalation: Iran retaliated with missile/drone strikes on US-allied bases in Kuwait and Bahrain as sirens sounded across the region, and Trump reiterated the ceasefire is “over” even as talks continue. Insurance & Traffic Impact: War-risk insurance demand for Hormuz voyages has fallen, but premiums remain elevated; tanker traffic slowed sharply with only limited transits reported, adding pressure to global oil and fuel supplies. Diplomacy via Oman: Iran’s foreign minister is set to visit Oman for Strait of Hormuz consultations, with Qatar mediators also pushing de-escalation. Sanctions & Finance: The US expanded Iran-related sanctions on financial networks and a “key sponsor” linked to the supreme leader, while Iran’s FM warned reciprocal action for US breaches. Logistics Hub Watch: Turkmenistan reported a 10% rise in cargo transit in 1H 2026, citing upgrades and digital customs as it strengthens Middle Corridor and Trans-Caspian links. Maritime Access Curbs: Egypt and Turkey denied entry to the “Scarlet Lady” cruise ship, rerouting it via Crete after docking was refused.

Hormuz Shipping Shock: Strait of Hormuz traffic plunged again after Trump declared the US-Iran truce “over,” with only 14 vessels transiting reported and LNG/crude flows disrupted despite some LNG tankers resuming. Sanctions & Enforcement: The US Treasury added fresh Iran-related sanctions on people, entities and tankers tied to petroleum sales and weapons supply chains. Diplomacy vs Escalation: EU plans solidarity with Gulf states at a Brussels high-level meeting, while US officials say technical talks continue even as strikes and retaliations trade blows across the region. Transport Targets Expand: US strikes hit Iran’s rail links, including a bridge connecting Tehran to Mashhad, underscoring how logistics corridors are becoming military priorities. Legal Fallout for Seafarers: Three former crew members of a Thai ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz sued the operator in Bangkok over alleged labour rights violations. Energy Market Readthrough: IEA said June saw a global oil supply rebound as Hormuz shipments improved, but output remains well below pre-war levels due to ongoing security disruptions. Regional Infrastructure Watch: Syria’s sanctions-free path appears to advance as the US moves to rescind its terrorism designation, potentially reopening investment channels. LNG Fleet Build: ADNOC ordered four new 175,000 cu m LNG carriers for delivery from 2029, betting on long-term demand even amid Hormuz volatility.

US-Iran Shipping Shock: Trump declared the Iran ceasefire “over” after IRGC retaliations, with the Strait of Hormuz seeing near-standstill tanker traffic and oil prices jumping again as both sides trade strikes. Rail & Corridor Disruption: The US hit Iran railway bridges tied to the China-Russia corridor and Iran suspended Tehran–Mashhad passenger rail service, while Iran accused the US of striking routes linked to Khamenei’s burial. Gulf Escalation & Air Defense: Iran launched attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan; Kuwait intercepted missiles and drones, and Jordan reported air-defense activity. Funeral Meets Volatility: Iran buried Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Mashhad amid crowds chanting revenge as US strikes delayed parts of the procession. Maritime Labor Pressure: ITF reported a shipowner abandoning seafarers in Las Palmas over $68,000 owed, pushing for legal action. Aviation Safety: A US Navy MH-60S commander was killed after an Arabian Sea crash, and a separate F-16 crash in Greece grounded flights. Regional Security: Syria arrested suspects over bomb blasts during Macron’s visit, linking them to ISIS. Road Freight Risk: Iraqi crude drivers urged Baghdad to arrange security escorts inside Syria after repeated robberies and gunfire on transit routes.

US-Iran Hormuz Escalation: The US launched another wave of strikes on Iran after Trump said the interim ceasefire is “over,” targeting military sites and port/rail infrastructure as Iran retaliated by hitting US-allied bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar; sirens sounded across the Gulf and officials warned the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor is at risk. Transport Disruption: Iran suspended passenger rail between Tehran and Mashhad after reported US strikes on the rail line/bridges, rerouting travelers by road; the broader conflict is also pushing tanker traffic to slow or reroute. Aviation Safety (Pakistan): Search teams found wreckage from a K2 Airways Boeing 737 cargo plane that crashed into the Arabian Sea off Pakistan; all five crew members remain missing as monsoon conditions complicate deep-sea recovery. Aviation/Infrastructure (Turkey): Turkey spent eight months and over $120m upgrading an airport to handle a Qatar-gifted Boeing 747 used for VIP travel tied to NATO-related movements. Diplomacy (Qatar): Qatar rejected attacks on commercial ships in Hormuz and urged dialogue and strict adherence to the MoU framework.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: The US carried out another round of strikes on Iran after Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire/MoU was “over,” with CENTCOM saying the goal is to “further degrade” threats to freedom of navigation; Trump also renewed threats to hit civilian infrastructure and Kharg Island, while Iran warned it could close the strait and retaliate. Shipping & Energy Impact: Markets reacted fast—oil jumped back above $80 as fears of renewed blockade grew, and reports said tankers turned back; the UAE condemned an Iranian attack on a Saudi-flagged tanker (Wedyan) as a threat to international navigation. Aviation Disruption & Safety: K2 Airways’ Sharjah–Karachi cargo Boeing 737 crash investigation advanced as wreckage was found off Pakistan’s coast; authorities recovered debris and kept searching for five crew members. Regional Diplomacy: Iran and Qatar held talks to cool Hormuz tensions, while Pakistan and the UK urged restraint and a return to reopening the waterway. Defense Cooperation: Türkiye and the US signaled a new defense phase after NATO talks, with F-35 sanctions easing discussed and shipbuilding cooperation on the table. Aviation Risk Notices: EU aviation authorities adjusted advisories for Israel and parts of the Middle East, reflecting shifting security assessments amid the wider Iran flare-up.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The US struck Iran again after attacks on three merchant ships, while Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire and memorandum are “over,” revoking a license that had allowed Iranian oil sales; Iran hit US-linked sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, and the EU called the escalation “unacceptable,” pushing Brent up sharply and rattling Gulf markets. Aviation Risk Controls: EASA extended guidance for airlines to avoid Iran and Iraq airspace until Aug. 31 as tensions rise. Air Cargo Incident (Pakistan): Pakistan expanded the search for a K2 Airways Boeing 737 cargo plane that vanished over the Arabian Sea near Karachi after reporting a navigation system issue, with five crew onboard; navy and air force assets are involved. Regional Logistics Watch: Reports say some shipping carriers resumed limited sailings through the Suez Canal despite the wider Middle East conflict.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: The US launched fresh “powerful” strikes on Iran after three commercial vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, with CENTCOM saying the action targets air defenses, coastal surveillance, anti-ship systems and drone sites and that Iran’s moves violated a ceasefire. Oil & Sanctions Pressure: Washington also revoked a temporary license allowing Iranian oil sales, ratcheting pressure during fragile US-Iran talks; oil prices jumped as the shipping risk returned. Gulf State Pushback: Qatar condemned the attack on its LNG tanker Al Rekayyat and summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador; Saudi Arabia and the UAE also condemned attacks on the Wedyan and Al Rekayyat, calling them threats to navigation and global energy. Diplomatic Friction: Iran rejected Qatar’s accusations and reiterated it should manage Strait transit, while the US said the interim deal is “performance-based.” Local Transport Disruption (Non-Middle East): Jerusalem’s light rail faces ongoing Haredi protests and reported damage exceeding NIS 400m, with delays to sections of the Green Line. Aviation/Logistics Incident: Pakistan searched for a missing K2 Airways cargo plane near Karachi after it reported a navigational system issue.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Fresh attacks on commercial shipping are rattling energy and logistics flows. A Qatari LNG tanker (Al Rekayyat) was hit off Oman and caught fire, while Reuters and Axios also report missile damage to other vessels; Iran says only its approved routing is safe and warns against unilateral moves, as US-Iran talks remain stalled around the Khamenei funeral. NATO Ankara Summit: NATO leaders in Turkey are using the summit to push defense spending and address the Hormuz stalemate, with foreign ministers set to meet Gulf Arab counterparts on a possible multinational maritime mission. Syria Security & Mobility: Explosions in Damascus during Macron’s visit injured 18 people near the Four Seasons hotel, prompting road closures and heightened security—another reminder of volatility affecting regional travel and movement. Maritime Capacity & Offshore Support: Bahri Logistics signed with Grandweld Shipyard to build two advanced offshore support vessels for Ras Tanura Port, boosting offshore services and energy logistics resilience. Aviation/PPP Watch: Egypt is expected to announce early results of its airport privatization/PPP program before year-end, with 11 airports in scope. Qatar Infrastructure Delivery: Parsons won a three-year contract to manage and supervise Lusail City’s infrastructure program north of Doha.

Iran–Houthis Escalation: Iran’s envoy reportedly reappeared in Sana’a and met Houthi officials as Tehran–Sanaa ties deepen, raising the stakes for Red Sea and regional shipping. Funeral-Driven Tensions: Millions packed Tehran for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s procession; his successor Mojtaba stayed out of public view while crowds chanted revenge themes. Strait of Hormuz Logistics: With Hormuz flows still uneven, Pakistan bought a late-week LNG cargo at about double prior Qatari contract rates, underscoring how chokepoint disruption keeps energy procurement volatile. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ agreed to raise output quotas again, while crude prices settled near pre-Iran-war levels as Gulf exports recovered. Aviation Connectivity: Air Arabia launched direct Sharjah–London Gatwick service, adding another link for Middle East–Europe travel. Maritime/Port Disputes: Israel’s defense ministry opposed Zim’s sale to Hapag-Lloyd, citing concerns over maritime independence and long-range supply access. Road/Transit Disruption: Israeli police dispersed ultra-Orthodox protesters trying to block Jerusalem light-rail works, reopening Bar Ilan Street to traffic. Cross-border Trade: Erbil is set to host an economic summit focused on logistics and trade ties with Türkiye and Azerbaijan. Security Disruption at Sea: Monsoon weather disrupted seized Iran-linked tankers off India’s coast, with one vessel running aground and salvage operations underway. Syria Reconstruction Push: Macron landed in Damascus for a first major Western leader visit since Assad’s fall, with French business leaders including CMA CGM expected to discuss reconstruction and trade.

Strait of Hormuz & Energy Logistics: Iran’s Khamenei funeral week is colliding with shipping policy as Tehran pushes “service fees”/special terms for Strait of Hormuz transits while warning against foreign military moves; at the same time, LNG and gas curbs in India are being rolled back as Hormuz LNG shipments resume, and OPEC+ agreed to raise August quotas as Gulf exports recover. Regional Trade & Corridors: Pakistan urged to deepen Iran ties via energy, trade and logistics, while Iraq’s Basra–Aqaba pipeline talks are back on the agenda. Maritime Security: Red Sea risk remains live with reports of cargo-ship attacks off Yemen, and US Navy search efforts in the Arabian Sea have been suspended after a helicopter crash. Aviation & Mobility: Türkiye is preparing for the NATO summit with transport/security steps, while Saudia denies any link to 777-200ER transfers allegedly tied to Iran. Tech & Transport Industry: Türkiye’s Tersan Shipyard started building a mega cable-laying vessel for subsea power and fiber projects, and Kuwait’s Al Dorra OPVs are set to receive infrared surveillance systems. Public Transport Demand: Seattle light rail hit record ridership during major events, underscoring how quickly crowds stress transit systems. Humanitarian Access: A Palestinian infant died after delays at an Israeli checkpoint near Ramallah, highlighting ongoing access barriers. Funeral Disruption & Crowd Control: Tehran’s procession for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei drew massive crowds with heavy security, road shutdowns and airspace restrictions, while the absence of successor Mojtaba Khamenei kept attention on Iran’s leadership transition.

NATO Maritime Security: The US says it will push allies to boost maritime security for the Strait of Hormuz at the July 7-8 Ankara summit, as Iran warns it is using the ceasefire to strengthen combat readiness. Strait of Hormuz Fees: Iran’s ambassador to China says Tehran will introduce “service fees” for ships transiting Hormuz, with “friendly” nations getting special treatment, while the US rejects the idea of a toll. Shipping Resumes: Iran-Qatar maritime trade has restarted after a five-month halt, reopening the Dayyer–Al Ruwais corridor and aiming to cut regional transport costs. Red Sea Risk: A cargo ship was attacked off Yemen near Hodeidah, with crew safe; the incident follows reports of Houthis killing government troops and signals renewed pressure on Red Sea lanes. Energy & Fuel Logistics: OPEC+ agreed to raise output quotas in August as Hormuz traffic normalises, while Iraq’s Diyala faces recurring gasoline shortages that are disrupting taxi work and daily transport. Aviation & Travel: Saudia won the 2026 APEX award for best cabin service; Air Arabia launched Sharjah–London Gatwick nonstop flights. Turkey Transport/Industry: Turkey is preparing for NATO talks that could unlock F110 jet engine supply for Ankara’s KAAN stealth fighter, even as the F-35 dispute remains. Local Traffic Ops: Sharjah Roads and Transport Authority outlined traffic management plans for Al Taawun tunnel construction to keep flows moving.

Roadworks Disruption: Jordan’s Russeifa Bridge maintenance on the Amman Development Road will run Monday with partial lane diversions (no full closure) to keep traffic moving. Aviation Connectivity: Air Arabia launched a double-daily Sharjah–London Gatwick service, boosting UAE–UK travel links. Maritime Security: A cargo ship reported being attacked off Yemen in the Red Sea; UKMTO said investigations are under way. Energy & LNG Flows: India rolled back most emergency natural gas supply curbs after LNG shipments resumed through the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Shipping along Oman’s coast fell to a trickle as several vessels made sharp U-turns, showing continued uncertainty. Iran Shipping Fees: Iran signaled it will introduce Strait of Hormuz service fees, with “friendly” nations getting preferential treatment. Iraq Oil Exports: The US imported no Iraqi crude for a second time in three weeks, with shipments dropping to zero again. Security in Iraq: An Iraqi counterterrorism officer was killed in clashes with ISIS in Kirkuk. Regional Defense Cooperation: Israel confirmed it sent an Iron Dome battery to the UAE during the Iran war. Turkey–Pakistan Trade Push: Turkish and Pakistani leaders reaffirmed a $5B trade target and investment cooperation across logistics, energy and tech. Transport Demand Signals: Türkiye reported 308,000 hot air balloon passengers in the first half of 2026, with most flights concentrated in Cappadocia.

US-Iran Diplomacy Watch: Egypt urged the US and Iran to keep momentum on their memorandum after nuclear talks were paused for Khamenei’s mourning week, warning that sustained diplomacy is key to stability. Regional Pressure: Turkey’s Erdogan said Israel must not “dynamite” the US-Iran deal and argued lasting peace needs regional backing, while also pledging deeper cooperation with Pakistan in energy and transport. Maritime Risk & Routing: Iran reiterated the Strait of Hormuz is not a “theater” for extra-regional military display, as reports said some vessels were turned back and shipping traffic stayed fragile—an issue that continues to ripple into Gulf logistics and energy flows. Trade & Corridors: Pakistan and Türkiye reaffirmed a $5bn bilateral trade target and discussed special economic zones, plus cooperation in transport and energy. Border Logistics: Iran reported higher Q1 exports to Iraq via the Mehran crossing and a surge in transit trucks, signaling renewed cross-border movement. Security Disruption: Iraq promoted ecotourism and said it’s improving road access and tourist bus routing to cut congestion—an attempt to keep travel moving despite wider regional instability. Tech for Infrastructure: China is marketing seabed marine cable detection robots to Middle East clients, aiming to boost offshore maintenance capabilities.

Strait of Hormuz Security: Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi warned the UK and France not to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a “military parade ground,” stressing coastal-state control and warning of consequences for extra-regional deployments. Funeral Logistics & Crowd Risk: Iran kicked off a week-long state funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with authorities planning mass transport and lodging for millions; one report claims officials prepared for up to 3,000 deaths amid heat and crowd pressure. Regional Security: Iraqi forces killed an alleged ISIS member in a Kirkuk ambush, while ISIS activity is also reported to be resurging in Syria amid instability. Trade & Transport Corridors: DP World said more cargo is routing through Turkey to reach Gulf markets as firms diversify away from disrupted lanes, boosting Turkey’s role as a Europe–Asia–Gulf logistics gateway. Bilateral Investment Push: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif invited Turkish companies to expand investment in energy, mining, infrastructure, maritime services, logistics, and IT during meetings in Istanbul. Aviation/Maritime Watch: France deployed mine countermeasure vessels, frigates, and a patrol aircraft to support safe navigation in the Hormuz area.